The prospect of a massive dam in Tibet raises the roof on anxiety for downstream neighbors.

By Probe International

In the wake of a series of earthquakes that struck in the southern Tibetan plateau on Jan. 7, killing at least 126, focus on the plateau’s seismic sensitivity has intensified in the shadow of plans to build the world’s largest hydropower dam in the earthquake-prone region.

Reuters reports 68 major dams currently operate in the area, with another 101 planned or under construction “despite the significant seismic risks.” Of these projects, the Medog Hydropower Station, a massive China-made dam set for construction on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, near the border with India, has pushed an already high-stakes situation into unprecedented risk territory.

The magnitude of Medog is mind-boggling at an estimated cost of $137 billion with an anticipated generating capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually (three times more than the world’s current hydro behemoth Three Gorges Dam). Concerns about both the project’s impacts and China’s leveraging of cross-border river flows as a geopolitical tool have escalated since the Jan. 7 quake in an environment where seismic activity makes dam development particularly hazardous.

Fears over the construction of a hydro colossus on the Yarlung Zangbo River, which becomes the Brahmaputra downstream, include the design’s potential for 20-km long tunnels drilled through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert the river’s flow. This scenario could raise the threat threshold of flash floods and droughts for neighboring India and Bangladesh, as well as cause displacement for riverine communities and harm to the local ecosystem.

Describing China’s bid to secure its hold over the headwaters of Asia’s major river systems as “a matter of grave concern for India” and, in particular, its eastern regions, northeast India’s the Border Lens writes: “These areas now face a perpetual threat akin to living under a “water bomb,” controlled by a foreign power governed by a Communist regime that lacks credible bilateral relations with India, the world’s largest democracy.”

The recent earthquake in Tibet has “heightened anxieties about the safety of China’s hydropower infrastructure in the region,” reports Border Lens, which points to China’s “stringent internet restrictions in Tibet” as obscuring the extent of the quake’s destruction and “further alarming those downstream who depend on the Brahmaputra River.”

In response, India has initiated the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh to regulate the Brahmaputra’s flow and mitigate potential impacts from China’s megadam. However, this project has also faced opposition from local communities and human rights groups.

According to Border Lens, the broader issue remains the lack of a formal water-sharing agreement between India and China. New Delhi has called for adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, but Beijing has shown little willingness to comply. This absence of agreement leaves India vulnerable to unilateral decisions by China, which could pose catastrophic consequences for millions living downstream. India, says Border Lens, must intensify diplomatic efforts to pressure Beijing into adopting and respecting global water-sharing norms to mitigate these risks.

Reuters cites a report by Chinese geologist Fan Xiao, who provides extensive analysis of the challenges and risks associated with the development of a transboundary super dam in occupied Tibet. Fan concludes the project is not even warranted given the lack of demand in sparsely populated Tibet, in tandem with the high costs of transmitting energy produced elsewhere. Fan describes the dam’s appeal to China’s Communist regime as political:

“The gross domestic product brought by huge hydropower projects, as well as the increase in investment and tax revenue, is a great temptation for the government and related interest groups.” [Fan Xiao’s analysis in full has been translated into English by Probe International to view or download here: China’s Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend Mega-Dam Not Feasible Due to Risks].

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