Is insisting on “Zero Covid,” an early rehearsal for total social control?

Abstract:

“The man in line for the nucleic acid test¹ was struck by lightning and died.” This is a huge absurdity in the Chinese context and as much a metaphor as anything else. It is said, “Why do those who deserve to die not die, but those who do not deserve to die?” Meaning that the dictator who caused all this is unharmed.

For the Communist Party, one observer argues, this is a benefit that the government doesn’t want to say out loud: “zero” epidemic control is an early rehearsal. The government has gained considerable experience should a situation arise that requires full control.

In China, the opinions of the people will have no impact on the outcome of the upcoming 20th National Congress. But their own lives are suffering a great loss because of the upcoming Congress.

By Sharon – Exclusive to Probe International

On the evening of August 30, Beijing time, many people in my WeChat circle started to forward the news that the 20th Communist Party Congress would be held on October 16, 2022. “The boots are finally on the ground.” Some people said. There were many rumours that the 20th Communist Party Congress would be delayed, but this news proves that the legendary “delay” caused by the internal political struggle of the Communist Party did not occur. The “Nineteenth Congress” of 2017, in which Xi Jinping amended the Constitution to cement his indefinite re-election was held on October 18 of that year.

Many people in the circle of friends flirted with the idea that the “20th National Congress” should be held soon, preferably tomorrow. The meeting announcement trumpeted that “China has achieved a great victory against the epidemic.” So, netizens responded, “Please hurry up and stop doing nucleic acid for all people every day, no more tossing the people, tossing the economy, people can no longer afford it! The people agree with all the contents of your conference, just please, please leave us alone.”

Yes, this is probably the mindset of many Chinese people. This Communist Party Congress, which is widely considered to be the key meeting that will determine if Xi Jinping will be granted rule-without-end, is hardly a chance for the Chinese people to have any real input, and the people’s opinions will have no impact on the outcome of this Congress. But their own lives are suffering a huge loss because of the upcoming conference.

1. The unstoppable “Omicron” blooms everywhere

In 2022, the Covid-19 epidemic is in its third year. While the world is choosing to live with the virus, the Chinese government is sticking to its Zero-COVID policy and taking increasingly stringent measures to control the epidemic. From China’s capital, Beijing, to the southernmost island city, Sanya, Hainan Province; from the northeastern city of Dalian to Lhasa, Tibet, on the plateau. The whole of China, and almost all of its people, are suffering from this severe control in the rare summer heat of 2022.

On August 6, 2022, Sanya, the most popular destination for tourists in Hainan Island, suddenly announced a city closure (in official parlance, a “region-wide static management”). This tourist city is located on the southernmost island of China. It is more than 2,100 kilometres from Shanghai, which was forcibly locked down for nearly four months earlier this year. It was the summer vacation period when many Shanghai citizens, after the painful city closure from March to June 2022, took their children, or the whole family, to travel to Hainan to enjoy a rare relaxation. However, because of the sudden discovery of COVID-19 cases, Sanya immediately closed the city and took extremely severe measures, stopping all flights and forbidding anyone from leaving. In Sanya alone, more than 80,000 foreign tourists were forced to “stay where you are”. It should be noted, the total number of tourists for the entire province of Hainan is 180,000. These tourists were living in hotels, bearing the high cost of hotel accommodation and food, living in hardship and without access to medical care. Flights were repeatedly cancelled, and many were forced to stay for up to 20 days without being able to return home. People complained, but these voices were rarely reported in the media, except for circulating on self-published media, which was immediately silenced.

On August 16, the Nanjing government announced that it would charter a plane to Hainan to pick up Nanjing travellers who were forced to stay in Hainan, receiving a flood of praise from people on social media. Visitors from many provinces and cities called on their home governments to charter a plane to take them home.

On August 7, there were cases in the Ali region of Tibet. Officials had reported that previously, the Tibet Autonomous Region had been free of new cases for 920 consecutive days. However, by August 17, the number of asymptomatic infections in the Tibetan region reached 2,709 cases.

Tibet immediately began to take strict control measures. From August 12, Lhasa declared a “silent management,” all stores were closed and people were not allowed to leave their neighbourhoods, almost like a “city closure,” and the tourist destination of Tibet, Shigatse and other areas were also closed. At this time, thousands of people traveling to Lhasa are blocked on the road. The reason is that the summer is the peak season for tourism in Tibet, and many mainland tourists drive their own cars to Tibet to enjoy the blue sky and white clouds, the scenery of snow-capped mountains and the folklore of Tibetan areas. The sudden blockade of Tibet left many tourists stuck on the road, unable to enter Tibet nor return home. At some cliff sides on the plateau, the vehicles that were forced to stop, formed a long line. The tourists in these cars were exposed to the scorching sun on the plateau, some had no food, no gasoline, and could not seek medical treatment when they were sick, and some were blocked on the road for as long as five or six days. To this day, flights to and from the mainland of Tibet are still not normal, and a large number of tourists and pilgrims are stranded in hotels or isolation points, or even on the roads.

In addition to these places, throughout China, the extreme heat this summer has not put an end to the virus, but on the contrary, due to the highly contagious nature of the Omicron virus, cases are emerging in almost every province. The authorities’ insistence on a Zero-COVID policy can only start by breaking the chain of infection. The most relied on approach is to close the city at every turn and “silence the whole city”. This has been the case in major cities like Tianjin, Chongqing and Chengdu, as well as in small counties in many provinces. Until under control, all residents are forced to stop all normal work and life. All stores, factories and restaurants are closed, people “work from home” and are forbidden to enter or leave their neighbourhoods. Under the most severe control measures, all residents were not allowed to go out of their homes, and all daily living supplies had to be provided by government workers and volunteers at home. Access to medical care, medicine, and food has become a huge struggle.

Many people on WeChat, a social media outlet widely relied upon by the Chinese public, lamented that their lives, or their businesses, or their jobs, were greatly affected by the lockdown that could fall from the sky at any moment. In a metropolis like Shanghai, where countless street stores have closed, life is especially difficult for the lower class.

During the city’s closure this spring, an outspoken university professor suggested on social media that if the government were to introduce a “city closure” that would prohibit everyone from going out to work, it should first cut the salaries of government employees during the closure. That way, government officials and workers will feel the hardships that ordinary people might face before making their policies.

But such a proposal is not possible in China. Because these government officials and civil servants are appointed by their superiors, not elected by the people, they cannot really think about the interests of the people.

2. The Absurd “Nucleic Acid” and the Pressure of the “20th Party Congress”

Since July, as the date of the Party’s 20th National Congress draws near, there have been many absurd things happening due to the control of the epidemic.

On August 25, 2022, at the 2022 Asian Women’s Volleyball Cup tournament, held in the Philippines, the Chinese women’s team faced Iran. For the first set of the game, all Chinese athletes on the court wore masks. As a result, the masks may have made them play poorly, so the Chinese team lost the first set to the Iranian team, which was not as strong. However, after the Chinese women took off their masks, they beat the Iranian team easily, winning three subsequent sets in a row, in a comeback to take the first place in the group.

After the match, the video of the women’s volleyball team playing with masks was widely circulated on Chinese social media. People teased and questioned the absurd decision of the sports management: it is common sense not to wear masks during intense sports, so why should sports management officials order their athletes to do so? If it is not to “prevent the epidemic,” is it grotesque performance art? Some even ask: “Is this a disguised allegiance to the Führer?” This feigned display of “epidemic prevention” is more a grotesque form of performance art.

Perhaps because of the overwhelming public reaction, the Chinese Volleyball Association, the official organization, issued an online statement 10 hours after the match, insisting that it was done “to protect the health of the players,” and so on. This provoked even more ridicule and mockery.

The “masked women’s volleyball team” incident is not the only ridiculous story. Because President Xi insists on an extreme Zero-COVID policy, epidemic prevention is the top political goal, especially with the looming “20th Congress” about to happen. As a result, government officials at all levels, answering to their superiors up the line, are willing to take all kinds of absurd measures to accomplish this task.

In China, because of the popularity of smartphones, the public behaviour of government officials is often filmed by the public. Social media often reveals absurd footage of “epidemic prevention” that feeds the anger of people.

In one video, several people fishing in a river somewhere in the south, thought to have violated “silent management rules” by going out to fish without permission, are surrounded on all sides by a group of men in white protective clothing, and one of them is handcuffed as he tries to escape. In another video, an elderly farmer working in a field is pinned to the ground by law enforcement officers for “unauthorized work.” Another peasant women, who was washing by the river, was forced to tie her arms behind her back and had her mouth forcibly pried open by epidemic prevention personnel and swabbed for nucleic acid testing.

At about 7 p.m. on August 26, a thundery evening, four people were struck by lightning in Nanling Square in Wuhu City, Anhui Province, and two of them died. The official media reported afterwards that the two deceased were dancing and working out in a square when they were struck by lightning. However, circulated via social media, the local people took photos of the scene of the electrocution, showing the local people were lining up in the square to do nucleic acid testing. While the official media is busy “dispelling the rumours” online, at the same time, they are quickly deleting the posts of the people on the Internet. People were angry and powerless, and many are roasting the Internet for media fakery.

“The man in line for nucleic acid was struck by lightning and died.” This is a huge absurdity in the Chinese context, and as much a metaphor as anything. Some say, “Why don’t the damned die, while the undeserving do?” Meaning that the dictator who caused all this is safe and sound (in Chinese legend, there is a curse that “bad people will be struck by lightning”).

It is a fact that in China, because of the absolute Zero-COVID policy, collective nucleic acid testing is not only the government’s primary means of controlling the ordinary people, but has in fact become a huge business.

In the city where I used to live, when the government asks for “full testing,” in many neighbourhoods, people are called by loudspeaker to get their nucleic acid tests from 6 a.m. onwards, and to line up downstairs to receive them. All health care workers have to be on duty, taking turns to do the nucleic acid test in each neighbourhood, so the schedule must be staggered throughout the day. Some neighbourhoods even start nucleic acid testing at 5 a.m.

This year in China, most areas are suffering extreme heat. In Chongqing and Chengdu, temperatures reached over 40 degrees Celsius, breaking historical records. The high temperatures triggered mountain fires in Chongqing while areas such as Shapingba, in Chongqing, were closed because of the cases. In a picture circulating on the Internet showing the empty and silent city, the mountain fires and smoke that filled the distance, and the crowd lining up for nucleic acid tests in a square in Chongqing were captured in a single image by an aerial camera. This scene was evaluated by netizens as a “spectacle of the world”.

Absurdity is everywhere. Epidemic prevention personnel, zippered head-to-toe in their hazmat suits, are shown in empty and deserted grassland areas and on distant snowy mountains, to show that nucleic acid tests are blanketing the country to “serve the People”. It’s propaganda at its most ludicrous.

People say that in such an era, it is necessary to rely on nucleic acid testing to “renew life”. If a person lives in a city and does not take a group nucleic acid test, he or she cannot go to public places, go to school, ride in a car, go shopping, or travel.

In many cities with cases, there are “full nucleic acid tests,” where people are tested every day for three, seven or more days in a row. Who is paying for it and who is benefiting from this huge cost? Who are the companies behind the “nucleic acid testing kiosks” that are popping up all over the streets? No one knows. Many people question the fact that nucleic acid testing has become the biggest business in today’s recession, and that this business is monopolized by government-related agencies or companies in China.

3. “Sensitive period” throughout the year

The new coronavirus has evolved to the point that by 2022, in most cases, the symptoms of Omicron virus are similar to those of a cold, and the danger has been greatly reduced. Why does Xi Jinping insist on a “Zero-Covid policy”? Many have attributed this to the upcoming 20th National Congress this fall.

In China’s political context, every major Communist Party meeting, as well as important holidays or moments, is known as a “sensitive period.” For example, during the annual “Two Sessions”² of the Communist Party, which are supposed to be a time for political participation and discussion, the public is asked to keep their voices completely silent before the session, and any criticism that can be heard must be silenced, otherwise the “harmonious atmosphere” will be destroyed. Every year, during the “Two Sessions,” trains and planes to Beijing are subjected to more stringent security checks in order to “ensure the safety of the capital”.

Sensitive times include times as the period around June 4, or on holidays such as the July 1 Party Day, August 1 Military Day, and the National Day. In short, almost every month is a sensitive month. During these months, some political dissidents are given special warnings, and some are even accompanied by the Thought Police³ to leave Beijing for “outings” in order to remove “destabilizing factors” from Beijing.

At the Party’s October 2022 National Congress, Xi Jinping will have been the Party boss for a decade. In accordance with Communist Party practice, a new general secretary and leader should be elected, but Xi Jinping amended the constitution in 2017 to clear the legal hurdles for his unprecedented re-election.

From 2017 to 2022, under a series of Xi’s policies, China’s social controls have become increasingly stringent, with the introduction of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, the mass arrest of pro-democracy activists, and the harsh suppression of protests, all of which have led to the loss of Hong Kong’s prosperity and the serious destruction of its original rule of law and freedoms. On the mainland, in the last three years, the epidemic control has even caused the economy to sink, people’s livelihoods to wither, unemployment to surge, and the public to grieve.

Against this backdrop, there are many rumours at home and abroad that Xi’s position is not secure and that there is a serious struggle within the Communist Party. For example, in the shadow of Xi’s “leadership,” Premier Li Keqiang is in a low position, but he has always declared during his tours around the country this year that China will adhere to the market economy, using the phrase, “the Yellow River will not flow backwards.” China’s reform and opening up will not stop.

However, such voices [like Premier Li Keqiang’s] are often not reported by the official media. What has flooded the official media are all kinds of political declarations of learning Xi Jinping’s ideas and pledging allegiance to him as the “core”.

At the same time, the general public is controlled by means of epidemic control. By means of “nucleic acid tests” that must be taken continuously in order to keep the “code green,”⁴ all the people’s whereabouts are fully grasped by the authorities. With “Big Data,” no one can have privacy. All this, in the tense atmosphere before the “20th Congress,” can only intensify.

4. Is insisting on “zeroing in,” an advance rehearsal for full social control?

As the world moves into normal life, the situation in China is confusing: even a dictator needs a good life for the people in order to rule. Whether it is the emperors of ancient China or the Communist Party’s claim to “represent the interests of the masses,” the foundation of the economy is indispensable.

And the current measures have seriously affected the economy. The four-month-long closure of Shanghai in the spring of this year caused the international metropolis to be hit hard. A large number of businesses closed and many foreign companies withdrew. A survey showed that the unemployment rate in Shanghai was as high as 12 percent.

What good would it do the Communists if the economy collapsed? Will they really not consider the economy? As we can see from the official media reports, the Communist Party is not indifferent to this, and officials are being sent to “guide the work” and “protect the economy,” but there is no way to recover the economy without stopping the epidemic control and nucleic acid testing.

So the question is, why does Xi Jinping insist on zeroing in on the situation?

Dai Qing, a longtime critic of the Communist Party, a Chinese writer living in the country, says the reasoning is actually quite simple. One is that Xi Jinping will soon consolidate his power in China’s history, even more than Mao Zedong, at the 20th National Congress, effectively realizing his dream of becoming emperor. In such a context, he is doing everything to establish his own high authority. The “Zero-Covid policy” that he single-handedly insisted on was one of his perceived authorities. And, against the backdrop of a highly inflated ego and a cult of the individual, Xi could not possibly believe in another kind of truth. “It’s like Yuan Shikai in the late Qing Dynasty.⁵ His son, in order to get him restored as emperor, ran a newspaper just for him, with only him as the reader. This newspaper published only what he wanted to see. Today Xi is also surrounded by such people,” the critic said.

At the same time, she argues, there are huge interest groups in and around the Communist Party, whether it’s nucleic acid testing or vaccines, and these party-state-controlled interest groups don’t want the epidemic to end.

More importantly, in the name of “epidemic prevention,” the nucleic acid tests are linked to all the “QR code” passes, which are used to control the travel of all people with big data, and to collect privacy without fear, so that the entire population can be controlled electronically. The new system will be a great success. “China is actually a huge prison,” she said.

“It’s a political virus, and not a virus at all per se,” said another observer. For the Communist Party, he argues, it’s a benefit that’s hard to put on the table: early rehearsal in cities through “zeroing in” on epidemic control. The government has already gained considerable experience in the event of a situation requiring full control.

5. Is there a possibility of public resistance under high control?

On the evening of August 27, thousands of people gathered in the Lianfang Street block, Shapingba District, Chongqing, to protest against the epidemic controls, demanding an explanation from the government: “Why can’t the government call off the lockdown after 10 days of continuous testing that showed no positive cases of all staff and no positive cases among all residents?”

Special police rushed to the scene to prevent the crowd from rioting. From late at night to early the next morning, Chongqing officials released news that Lianfang Street and another street would be unsealed at 6 a.m. on Oct. 28.

In videos circulating on social media, people wearing masks can be seen standing together on a hot summer night, protesting peacefully and without extreme behaviour. Special police stood in front of them, their steel helmets shining in the streetlights.

On this night, the crowds on the streets of Chongqing who bravely protested and won a slim victory seemed to give hope that there is a possibility for the long-suffering people to stand up to the dictatorship. But in China today, this may well be a figment of the imagination. In China, the military is completely controlled by the Party, and every soldier is loyal to the Party leadership. And the police, the violent machine that “maintains the stability of the country,” is always on standby.

The unarmed population has no freedom of association, gathering, publication or speech. While the spread of smartphones has allowed them to connect with each other, there is ubiquitous censorship on WeChat, China’s largest social media outlet. In recent years, the crackdown on intellectuals and the media has carried over to the general public who post a few whiny complaints, which has silenced more and more people. People who live in fear find it hard to overcome their fear to take to the streets and express their inner anger.

In Shanghai, during the city closure, there was a scene similar to the one in Chongqing, where residents of a neighbourhood, gathered to protest and force the streets to be unsealed a little earlier. But such a phenomenon is also very rare in Shanghai, the most sophisticated and flourishing city in China.

Shanghai citizens showed their wisdom during the city closure. They expressed their anger at the lack of food and the lack of freedom through balcony concerts (people banging pots and pans on their balconies on the same evening.) Expressing their hearts. There were also several local Shanghai experts and scholars who popularized common sense, gently expressed criticism and reasoned with the authorities through the Internet. All of these videos have been reposted and widely circulated.

But real protest is hard to achieve. Tight surveillance is the reason. In addition, China’s civil society is extremely weak, and people cannot really organize themselves. More people want to “hitch a ride” [be a “free rider” to those who take risks by organizing protests]. In addition, in any society, young people are usually the main group of resistance. In China, however, young people have been propagandized and compelled by nationalist sentiments for years, creating many “pinkos” who are proud of their patriotism (actually, their “love of the Party”). It is difficult for them to develop their independent thinking and critical spirit. More young people, as a consumer generation, are indifferent to the political rights of individuals.

In addition, under the Communist Party’s powerful ideological propaganda and tight “learning” network, most people are not capable of independent thinking. Many people still believe that the COVID epidemic in North American countries, like the United States and Canada, as well as in Europe and Japan, is still horrific and has taken many lives, while the Chinese government alone truly cares about the safety of the people, and its Zero-COVID policy has protected the most people. Although it poses a great inconvenience, “it is for the sake of the country and the collective good.” Participating in collective nucleic acid testing and obeying the government’s management is an honourable act in the interest of the nation.

On August 30, 2022, after the announcement of the date of the 20th National Congress, a debate took place in a WeChat group of intellectuals. Some believed that after the 20th Congress, China’s future would change and Xi would lose his absolute authority. Others pessimistically argue that nothing will change at all. Xi will rise to power as he intends and take even harsher measures. The future of China, with its crashing economy, surging unemployment and social chaos, is a country where everything is sliding in the worst possible direction. In the discussion, WeChat netizens could not use the name of the top leader and had to use a pronoun.

Another observer, however, argued that there is no need to be pessimistic, that Xi may not get what he wants and that there is still hope for change. “After all, no one in the former Soviet Union could have imagined, even before its collapse, that such a huge Red Empire would disintegrate overnight,” he said.

Coincidentally, shortly after the critic said this, on August 30, Mikhail Gorbachev, the general secretary of the Communist Party of the former Soviet Union and the man who single-handedly “buried” the Soviet empire, passed away.

1 Nucleic acid-based testing is also called molecular testing and is often referred to as PCR. 

2 The “Two Sessions,” known as Lianghui in Chinese, is the name given to the back-to-back annual meetings of two of China’s major political bodies — the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC).

3 The Thought Police refers to China’s secret police or state security personnel. In the dystopian novel “Nineteen Eighty-Four” by George Orwell, the Thought Police (Thinkpol) are the secret police of the superstate of Oceania, who discover and punish thoughtcrime, personal and political thoughts unapproved by Ingsoc’s regime.

4 China uses health codes, with a colour-coded system of red, yellow and green signifying different levels of Covid risk. Health-tracking apps are now required for entry almost everywhere, including offices, transport stations, stores , malls and taxis. Without it, normal life grinds to a halt. Everyone has a QR code that signifies either Green code: travel freely. Red or yellow: report immediately.

5 Yuan Shikai (袁世凱: 1859 – 1916) was a Chinese military and government official who rose to power during the late Qing dynasty. He established the first modern army and a more efficient provincial government in North China during the last years of the Qing dynasty before forcing the abdication of the Xuantong Emperor, the last monarch of the Qing dynasty in 1912. Through negotiation, he became the first President of the Republic of China in that year. In 1915 he attempted to restore the hereditary monarchy in China, with himself as the Hongxian Emperor. He was forced to abolish the hereditary monarchy because of strong opposition from everywhere in the country and died shortly after, in 1916.

摘要：

“排队做核酸的人，被雷电击中死亡。”这在中国的语境里，是一个巨大的荒谬，也如同一个隐喻。有人说：“为什么该死的不死，不该死的却死了？”意指导致这一切的独裁者却安然无恙。

一位观察者认为，对共产党来说，这是难以放在桌面上去说的一种好处：通过“清零”的疫情管控，在城市实现提前的演练。如果一旦出现需要全面管控的状况，政府已经积累了相当的经验。

在中国，民众的意见对即将举办的“二十大”的结果不会产生任何影响。但他们自身的生活，却因为这场将要举行的大会，正蒙受着巨大的损失。

     巨大的荒谬 ： 坚持“清零”，一场全面社会管控的提前演练？

                                作者：Sharon

8月30日，北京时间的傍晚时分，我的微信朋友圈里，很多人开始转发“二十大”(20th Communist Party congress)将在2022年10月16日举办的消息。“靴子终于落地了。”有人说。此前有很多传言，说中共的“二十大”将延迟召开，而这个消息证明，传说中因中共内部政治斗争而导致的“延迟”并没有出现。2017年的“十九大”，习近平修改宪法表明将无限期连任，就是在当年的10月18日召开的。

朋友圈里很多人调侃：“二十大”赶紧召开吧，最好明天就开。会上直接宣布“中国抗疫取得了伟大胜利”，然后，请赶紧停止天天全民做核酸吧，再别这样折腾人民，折腾经济了，人们再也承受不住了！”“你们的大会内容，人民全都同意，只是求求你们，请放过我们。”

是的，这可能是不少中国民众的心态。这场共产党的代表大会，被外界普遍认为是决定习近平继续执政的关键会议，但对中国民众来说，他们难以有任何发表真正意见的机会，民众的意见对这场大会的结果不会产生任何影响。但他们自身的生活，却因为这场将要举行的大会，正蒙受着巨大的损失。

1    挡不住的“奥密克戎”遍地开花

2022年，新冠疫情已进入第三个年头。在全世界都开始选择与病毒并存的背景下，中国政府却坚持清零政策，并采取越来愈严厉的疫情管控措施。从中国的首都北京到最南边的海岛城市——海南省三亚；从东北城市大连，到高原上的西藏拉萨。整个中国，几乎所有人民，都在2022年这个高温罕见的夏天，承受着由这种严厉管控带来的巨大痛苦。

2022年8月6日，海南省最大的城市三亚突然宣布封城管控（在官方的话语里，叫“全域静态管理”）。这是一座位于中国最南端海岛上的旅游城市。距离在今年年初被强制封城近四个月的上海市有2100多公里。此时正是暑假时期，许多上海市民，在经历了从2022年3月到6月的痛苦封城后，带着孩子，或者全家出动，到海南旅行，享受难得的放松。然而，只因为突然发现新冠病例，三亚立即封城，并且采取极为严厉的措施，所有航班停止，禁止任何人离开。仅三亚一座城市，就有8万多名外地游客，被强迫要求“原地静止”，在海南全省，这个数字是将近18万人。这些游客们居住在宾馆，承担着高昂的酒店住宿和饮食费用，生活困难，无法就医。航班一再被取消，很多人被迫滞留长达20天，而无法回家。人们怨声载道，但这些声音除了在自媒体上流传，旋即被消音之外，很少有媒体报道。

8月16日，南京市政府宣布，将包机到海南，接回被迫滞留在海南的南京旅客，这得到了社交媒体上人们的一片赞扬。很多省市的游客纷纷呼吁自己家乡的政府来包机接他们回家。

8月7日，西藏阿里地区出现病例。官方曾报道，此前，西藏自治区已连续920天无新增病例。但到8月17日，西藏地区的无症状感染者已达到2709例。

西藏立即开始采取严控措施。从8月12日开始，拉萨宣布“静默管理”，所有店铺关门，民众不能离开居住小区，几乎相当于“封城”，而西藏的旅游胜地日喀则等地区也同样封城。此时，成千上万到拉萨旅游的人被封堵在路上。因为夏天是西藏旅游的高峰期，非常多的内地游客，选择自驾车辆去西藏享受蓝天白云、雪山的风景和藏区的民俗。而西藏突然封锁，则让很多游客被堵在路上，既进不了西藏，也无法返回。在高原上的一些悬崖边，被迫停止的车辆，排成了长龙。这些车上的游客，在高原的烈日下被暴晒，有的没有食物，没有汽油，生病了也无法就医，有人被封堵在路上长达五、六天。至今，西藏往返内地的航班依然没有正常，大量游客、朝圣者被迫滞留在旅馆或隔离点，甚至是路上，

除了上述地方，在中国，这个夏天极端的高温天气没有让病毒终结，相反，由于奥密克戎病毒的高传染性，几乎每个省都此起彼伏地出现病例。而当局坚持“清零政策”，只能从切断传染链开始。最依赖的方式，则是动辄封城，“全城静默”。从天津、重庆、成都这样的大城市，到很多省的小县城，无不如此。一旦进入管控状态，所有居民被迫要求停止一切正常的工作、生活。所有的店铺、工厂、饭店关门停业，人们“在家上班”，禁止进出居住的生活小区。在最严厉的管控措施下，所有居民不能走出自己的家门，所有生活物资需要政府工作人员和志愿者上门供应。就医、买药、购买食物都成了巨大的困难。

在中国民众广泛依赖的社交媒体Wechat上，很多人哀叹，因为不知何时就可能从天而降的封锁管控，自己的生活，或者生意，工作，都受到极大影响。在上海这样的大都市，无数的街边店铺关张，底层的民众生活尤其困难。

在今年春天的上海封城期间，有一位敢言的大学教授在社交媒体上建议：如果政府要出台“封城”措施，禁止所有人出门工作，那么，请首先扣掉政府公务人员在封城期间的工资。这样他们在作出政策之前，才能考虑到普通民众可能因此陷入的生活困境。

但这样的建议在中国不可能实现。因为这些政府官员以及公务人员，都是由上级任命、而非民众选举出来的，他们不可能真正为民众的利益考虑。

2    荒诞的“核酸”   以及“二十大”的压力

从进入7月以来，随着“二十大”举办日期的临近，各地因疫情管控而发生的荒诞事情层出不穷。“

8月25日，在菲律宾举行的女排亚洲杯小组赛上，中国女排迎战伊朗队。比赛的第一局，女排队员被要求全场戴上口罩。结果或许是口罩让她们状态发挥不佳，这场比赛输给了实力不如她们的伊朗女排。在后面的三局比赛中，女排姑娘摘下口罩，轻松获胜，拿下了小组第一。

赛后，女排姑娘戴口罩打比赛的视频在中国的社交媒体上广泛流传。人们纷纷调侃，并质疑体育管理部门的荒诞决策：激烈运动中不能带口罩，这本是常识，为何体育管理官员要如此做？如果为了“防疫”，岂不是怪诞的行为艺术？更有人问：这是变相在向元首效忠吗？

或许是因为公众的反应过于强烈，在比赛结束10小后，作为官方组织的中国排球协会，为此在网上发表了一则声明，称当时是“为保护运动员健康”、“经验不足”等等。而这引起了人们更大的嘲笑和讥讽。

“女排口罩”事件不是唯一的荒谬故事。因为习坚持极端的清零政策，而各级官员都是向上级负责，而在“二十大”召开之前。防疫又是最大的政治任务，所以各地各级的政府，为完成这一任务，不惜采取各种荒诞的措施。

在中国，因为智能手机的普及，政府公务人员的各种公开行为，往往会被民众拍摄下来。社交媒体上常常会曝出一些和“防疫”有关的荒诞镜头，不断地滋长着人们的愤怒情绪。

其中一个视频显示，在南方某地的田野里，几个在河边钓鱼的人，被认为是违反了“静默管理的规定”，擅自外出钓鱼，被一群穿白色防护服的人员四面包围，扑倒在地，其中一个试图逃跑者被使用了手铐。而在另一个视频里，在田地里劳动的年老农民，因“擅自下地干活”，被执法人员压倒在地。另一名在河边洗衣的农妇，则被强制反绑双臂，由防疫人员强行撬开嘴，用棉签取样做核酸检测。

8月26日下午7时许，一个雷电交加的傍晚，在安徽省芜湖市的南陵广场，有四人被雷电击中，其中两人死亡。事后官媒报道，这两个死者当时是在跳广场舞健身，而被雷电击中。但社交媒体上，当地民众拍摄的现场照片则显示，电击的现场，是当地的民众正在广场上排队做核酸检测。就这样，官媒一方面在“辟谣”，一方面又在迅速删除网络上的民众发布的帖子。人们对此愤怒而无力，很多人在网上吐槽媒体造假。

“排队做核酸的人，被雷电击中死亡。”这在中国的语境里，是一个巨大的荒谬，也如同一个隐喻。有人说：“为什么该死的不死，不该死的却死了？”意指导致这一切的独裁者却安然无恙（在中国的传说中，有“坏人会被雷劈中”的诅咒）。

一个事实是，在中国，因为绝对的“清零政策”，集体做核酸检测，这不仅是政府控制民众的主要手段，事实上也已成为一门巨大的生意。

在我曾经居住的城市，从早上六点开始，小区里的高音喇叭里，就喊民众去做核酸检测，下楼排队。每当一个城市要求“全员检测”。所有的医护人员都要上岗，轮流在各个小区去做核酸，所以一天的时间安排必须错开。有的小区甚至凌晨五点就开始做核酸检测。

今年的中国，大部分地区处于极度高温状态。在重庆和成都，气温高达40多度，打破历史记录。高温引发重庆山火的同时，因为出现病例，重庆的沙坪坝等地区被封控管理。在网络流传的一张图片上，空寂无人的城市，远处弥漫的山火和浓烟，以及重庆市内一处广场上排队做核酸检测的人群，被航拍机拍进了一副画面。这一幕，被网友评价为“盛世奇观”。

荒诞无处不在。在空寂无人的草原上，在遥远的雪山，都有身穿白色防护服的防疫人员，为“人民群众上门服务”做核酸检测的身影。

人们吐槽说，在这样一个时代，必须靠核酸检测“续命”。一个人如果生活在城市，一旦不参加集体的核酸检测，就不能去公共场所，不能上学，坐车，购物，也不能外出旅行。

在很多出现病例的城市，动不动就“全员核酸检测”，接连三天、七天甚至更长时间，每天接受检测。这巨大的费用从何而来？街头遍地都是的“核酸检测亭”，背后是哪些企业？没有人知道。很多人质疑，如今百业萧条，只有核酸检测成为最大的生意，而这种生意，在中国，只有被与政府有关的机构或企业垄断。

3   全年不间断的“敏感期”

新冠病毒演化到2022年，在大多数情况下，奥密克戎病毒的症状和感冒差不多，危害性已大大降低，而中国的防疫措施为何依然如此严苛？如何习近平要坚持“清零政策”？很多人归结为与即将在今年秋天召开的“二十大”有关。

在中国的政治语境里，每逢共产党的重大会议召开之际，以及一些重要的节日或时刻，被称为“敏感期”。例如每年的“两会”，原本是参政议政的大会，但在大会之前，民众们反而会被要求全面禁声，平时能出现的批评声也必须销声匿迹，否则，会破坏“和谐”的气氛。每年“两会”期间，开往北京的列车、飞机都要增加更严格的安检程序，为了“确保首都安全”。

这样的敏感时刻，包括“六四”前后，以及“七一”建党节、“八一建军节”、“十一国庆节”这样的节日。总之，几乎全年都是敏感的月份。而在这样的月份，一些政治异议者会被特别警告，有的甚至被思想警察陪同，离开北京，去“外出旅游”，为的是不要在北京留下“不稳定因素”。

2022年的“二十大”，习近平已经连任十年。按照共产党的惯例，应该选出新一届的总书记和领导班子，但习近平已经在2017年修改宪法，为自己继续连任扫平了法律障碍。

从2017年到2022年，习的一系列政策下，中国的社会管控日益严厉，香港出台《国安法》，大肆抓捕民主人士，严酷镇压抗议活动，这一切，导致香港的繁荣一去不返，香港原有的法治和自由受到严重破坏。而在大陆，最近三年来，更因疫情的管控，经济下行，民生凋敝，失业率激增，民众怨声载道。

在这样的背景下，海内外出现很多传言，说习的位置不保，中共党内存在严重的斗争等等。例如在习的“领袖”阴影下，国务院总理李克强的地位低下，但他在今年以来各地的巡视中，总是宣称中国会坚持市场经济，用“黄河不会倒流”。来比喻中国的改革开放不会停止。

但这些声音，往往并得不到官媒的报道。充斥在官媒中的，是各种学习习近平思想，以及向习效忠，以其为“核心”的各种政治宣言。

与此同时，对民众则是通过疫情管控的方式加强控制。通过必须持续不地参加的“核酸检测”，才能保持“绿码”的方式，所有的人的行踪被当局完全掌握。”大数据“之下，没有人能拥有隐私。这一切，在“二十大”之前的紧张气氛里，只能愈演愈烈。

4  坚持“清零”，全面社会管控的提前演练？

当全世界都进入正常生活的时候，中国的状况让人迷惑不解：即使是一个独裁者，为了自己的统治，也需要民众过好的生活。不管是中国古代的帝王，或者是共产党宣称的”代表广大群众的利益“，都离不开经济的基础。

而当前的措施，则严重地影响了经济。上海在今年春天长达四个月的封城，就导致这座国际化的大都市遭受重创。大量企业关门，许许多多外资企业撤离。一则调查表明，上海的失业率高达12%。

如果经济垮掉了，对共产党有什么好处？他们真的不会考虑经济吗？从官媒的报道可以看到，共产党并非对此无动于衷，各地都在派管理经济的官员去“指导工作”，“保经济”，但在疫情管控不停止，核酸检测不停的情况下，要恢复经济，这无从谈起。

那么问题在于，习近平为什么要坚持清零不动摇？

在国内居住的某中国作家，一位共产党长期的批评者表示，这个道理其实很简单。一是习近平马上要在“二十大”上巩固他在中国有史以来，甚至比毛泽东还要大的权力，实际上实现他的皇帝梦。在这样的背景下，他所做的一切，是要树立自己的高度权威。而他一手坚持的“清零政策”，就是他认为的权威之一。而且，在高度的自我膨胀和个人崇拜的背景下，习不可能相信有另外一种真相。“就如晚清时代的袁世凯。他的儿子为了让他复辟做皇帝，专门为他办了一份报纸，只有他一个读者。这张报纸只刊登他想看到的。”“如今习的身边，也全是这样的人”。这位批评者说。

她认为，与此同时，在共产党内部和周围，都有巨大的利益集团，不管是核酸检测，还是疫苗，这些党国控制的利益集团，并不希望这场疫情结束。

而更重要的一点，是以“防疫”的名义，通过核酸检测和所有的“二维码”通行证联系在一起，对所有民众的出行进行大数据管控，进行毫无顾忌的隐私收集，实现对全体国民的电子管控。“中国实际上已是一个巨大的监狱。”她说。

“这是政治病毒，而根本不是病毒本身”。另一位观察者说。他认为，对共产党来说，这是难以放在桌面上去说的一种好处：通过“清零”的疫情管控，在城市实现提前的演练。如果一旦出现需要全面管控的状况，政府已经积累了相当的经验。

5   高度管控之下  民众是否有反抗的可能？

8月27日晚上，在重庆市沙坪坝区的联芳街道，上千民众因为抗议疫情管控，而聚集在街区，他们要求政府给出一个说法：为何在全员连续检测十天，无一例“阳性”之后，依然不能解封？

特警赶到现场，以防止人群发生骚乱。从深夜到凌晨，重庆发布官方消息，联芳街道和和另一个街道，将在10月28日的凌晨六点解封。

流传在社交媒体的视频里，可以看到，在炎热的夏天晚上，戴着口罩的人们站在一起，和平抗议，没有激烈的行为。特警站在他们的前面，头顶的钢盔在路灯下闪亮。

这个夜晚，重庆街头那些勇敢抗议，并取得了微弱胜利的人群，似乎让人们心怀希望：忍无可忍的民众，有站起来去反抗独裁统治的可能。但在当下的中国，这很可能只是一种想象。在中国，军队完全控制在党的手中，每一个军人都要效忠党的领导。而作为“维护国家稳定”的暴力机器，警察则随时严阵以待。

手无寸铁的民众，没有结社、聚会、出版和言论的自由。智能手机的普及，虽然让他们能够彼此连接，但在中国最大规模的社交媒体WeChat上，存在着无处不在的检查。近年来，对知识分子、媒体的打压，已延续到发一些牢骚怨言的普通民众身上，这让越来越多的人沉默。生活在恐惧中的人们，很难克服恐惧走上街头，表达内心的愤怒。

上海在封城期间，曾出现类似重庆的一幕，一个小区的居民，聚集在一起抗议，迫使街道提前解封。但这样的现象，在公民社会相对发达的上海，也十分少见。

上海市民在封城期间表现出了他们的智慧。他们通过阳台音乐会（民众在同一个傍晚，在阳台上敲打锅碗瓢鹏，表达他们缺少食物、没有自由的愤怒。）表达心声。也有多名上海当地的专家学者，通过互联网普及常识，温和地表达批评，和当局讲道理。这些视频均被转发和广为流传。

但真正的抗争很难实现。严密的监控是一方面。另一方面，中国的公民社会极其微弱，人们无法真正组织起来。更多的人则是希望”搭便车“。另外，在任何一个社会，年轻人原本都是反抗的主要人群。但在中国，年轻人在多年来的民族主义情绪宣传和蛊惑之下，产生很多“小粉红”，以爱国（其实是“爱党”）为荣。他们的独立思考、批判精神难以得到长进。更多的年轻人作为消费主义的一代，则对个体的政治权利漠不关心。

另外，在共产党强大的思想宣传，以及严密的“学习”网络之下，大部分民众并没有独立思考的能力。很多人到现在都相信：美国、加拿大这样的北美国家，以及欧洲、日本等地，新冠疫情依然非常可怕，夺去很多人的生命，只有中国政府最注重民众的生命安全，“清零政策”确保了大多数人的安全。虽然有很大的不方便，但“这是为了国家、集体的利益”。参与集体核酸检测，以及服从管理，是为国家利益考虑的光荣行为。

2022年8月30日这天，在宣布“二十大”的召开日期后，在一个知识分子聚集的微信群里，发生了一场辩论。有人认为，“二十大”后，中国的未来将会有改变，习会失去他的绝对权威。也有人悲观地认为，一切根本不会改变。习会如愿上位，采取更为严厉的措施。未来的中国，经济坠落、失业激增、社会混乱，这个国家的一切都在向最坏的方向滑行。在讨论中，他们不能指出最高领导人的名字，只能用代称。

而另一位观察者则认为，不必悲观，习未必能如愿以偿，还是存在着改变的希望。“毕竟，前苏联在解体前，也没有人能想到，这样庞大的一个红色帝国，会在一夜之间解体。”他说。

说来也巧，在这位批评家说完此话不久，也就是8月30日当天，前苏联的共产党总书记、一手“埋葬”了苏联帝国的戈尔巴乔夫离世。

……