As China’s Yarlung Zangbo megadam on the eastern rim of the Tibetan Plateau breaks ground, critics question Beijing’s dangerous penchant for megadams for their own sake.

By Three Gorges Probe and Probe International

China has formally launched construction of the Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project in Tibet, a megaproject poised to become the world’s largest hydropower behemoth with an annual output of 300 billion kilowatt-hours—triple the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the site at a ceremony on July 19 in Nyingchi City, in the southeast of the Tibet Autonomous Region, emphasizing its role in advancing China’s energy security and renewable goals. The $167.8 billion initiative will feature five cascade stations, starting with the Mainling dam in Nyingchi, to harness the Yarlung Zangbo River’s fierce currents purportedly for powering industrial and urban growth across western China. [See: Chinese Premier Announces Construction of Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project].

Also referred to as the Yaxia Hydropower Project,* the design will primarily adopt a river-bending cutoff and tunnel diversion model for the construction of the cascade power stations. According to the state news channel, Xinhua News Agency, the end goal is to transmit electricity to energy-hungry eastern provinces while supplementing Tibet’s grid, aligning with Beijing’s stated goals of optimizing renewable infrastructure and stabilizing regional power networks.

But is this really the case?

Ranking among the worst places in the world for civil rights and political freedom, dissent in tightly-controlled Tibet is highly dangerous. Nevertheless, Tibetan groups and environmentalists, in tandem with criticism from downstream neighbors India and Bangladesh, warn the project risks displacing millions, weaponizing water resources, destabilizing ecologically fragile zones and sacred sites, and heightens alarm over seismic hazards in the landslide-prone Himalayas. A series of exhaustive arguments by critics against the necessity of such a project, portray it largely as a vanity venture that favors geopolitical posturing over energy needs in the pursuit of dominance and territorial control.

In terms of Tibet’s own energy demands, Chinese geologist Fan Xiao argues the massive project is not needed. He says even if its output is intended for transmission to eastern China or other regions, there are significant challenges related to the high cost of transmission over distance. Given the current curtailment (unused hydropower) in provinces such as Sichuan and Yunnan, he says market demand may not be sufficient. Combined with the significant ecological and social costs to the Yarlung Zangbo River and southeastern Tibet, Fan concludes that developing hydropower in the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon would amount to more of a loss than a gain. [See: China’s Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend Mega-Dam Not Feasible Due to Risks].

Fan also emphasized concerns related to the project’s location in a seismically active zone. If the engineering design were able to address the impacts of seismic intensity, secondary disasters triggered by earthquakes—including landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows—are often uncontrollable, he said, and could pose serious threats if dam infrastructure became compromised.

Dr. Wang Weiluo, a Chinese hydrology expert based in Germany, believes the Yaxia Hydropower Project violates China’s own regulations and must be halted immediately. Located in a critical part of the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon, the area is designated as a national nature reserve protected from such projects by the People’s Republic of China itself. Dr. Wang cites Article 32 of China’s Regulations on Nature Reserves, which reads: “No production facilities shall be constructed in the core zones and buffer zones of nature reserves.” The creation of a hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon with an installed capacity three times that of the Three Gorges Dam directly contravenes this regulation. [See: Hydropower Development on the Lower Reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River Is an Illegal Project].

Dr. Wang argues China’s leadership has prioritized global supremacy over environmental, social, and geopolitical consequences, calling the Yaxia Hydropower Project a product of extreme nationalism rooted in Confucian hierarchical ideology, aimed at preserving China’s position as the world leader in hydropower engineering. [See: A Case of “Extreme Nationalism”].

He likens this form of nationalism to selfishness, devoid of consideration for others, and disregarding values such as non-violence, adherence to international law, and international cooperation through treaties. A form of political warfare below the threshold of armed conflict, Dr. Wang says “extreme nationalism” extends beyond China’s hydropower ambitions to its territorial aggression in the South China Sea, and around the world through espionage and influence operations.

Beijing in response has stated it does not seek “water dominance,” denies exploiting regional water resources for unilateral gain and never pursues “benefits for itself at the expense of its neighbors”. [See: China Starts Building World’s Biggest Hydropower Dam].

* “Yaxia” is an abbreviation for “the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River” in Chinese.