(October 1, 1999) The resettlement of up to two million people who will be flooded out of their homes by China’s massive Three Gorges dam is in chaos, according to a Chinese sociologist.

Wei Ming (who writes under a pseudonym) recently visited 5 of the 22 Yangtze river counties that are slated for flooding by the dam’s 600-kilometre long reservoir. She reports that since Premier Zhu Rongji announced a dramatic policy shift last April – to encourage distant resettlement and to close unprofitable and environmentally hazardous industrial projects built to employ local resettlers – officials and citizens in the dam area have been living in confusion, awaiting new orders from the central government.

Official statements give the impression that resettlement is proceeding smoothly, says Ms. Wei, but in reality it has ground to a halt. In interviews with local residents, resettlement officials, and academics, Ms. Wei discovered that real estate development and construction of infrastructure, residences, and factories have been suspended. Unemployment in the Three Gorges area currently hovers around 11%, which would rise to 70% if polluting, money-losing factories were shut down. No plans are in place for distant resettlement, and Zhu’s own uncertain political fate has added to the chaos and confusion.

If completed, the Three Gorges dam will be the world’s largest hydropower project. The central government has earmarked $7 billion for compensation and resettlement costs, but so far fewer than 100,000 residents – out of an ultimate two million – have been moved, with the waters of the Yangtze scheduled to begin rising in five years. Chinese critics of the dam are predicting a major crisis if the dam project continues as planned, and are hoping that the government will lower the dam height to reduce the number of people who have to move.

October 1, 1999