Stratfor.com’s Global Intelligence Update
June 5, 2006
Summary Citing environmental and financial concerns, members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) petitioned the government to slow work on the Three Gorges Dam. The CPPCC is a consultative body with little official power but a constituency that covers all of China. The real target, however, is not the dam but its patron, the hardliner Li Peng. The dam is in the middle of a political struggle, and the results of the struggle will alter the balance of power within the Communist Party. Analysis Fifty-three engineers and water experts urged the Chinese government May 3 to delay work on the Three Gorges Dam, according to the South China Morning Post. The petition was more than a judgement on the environmental and financial wisdom of the project – with one third of the signatories belonging to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference it was a political attack on Li Peng, the head of the National People’s Congress and the dam’s biggest sponsor. The Three Gorges Dam is one of the biggest construction projects in history. If completed, the 600-foot structure blocking the Yangtze River will be the largest hydroelectric dam in the world – five times wider than America’s Hoover Dam. The government expects it to supply China with 11 percent of its power. However, this progress comes at a cost, as more than 1.2 million people in more than 1,400 towns will be displaced by the reservoir. Corruption and mismanagement have plagued construction. The project was originally expected to cost about $11 billion, but recent estimates put that cost at more than $24 billion, not counting the cost of resettling those displaced by the waters.