By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is dismantling, whether by design or by consequence, a pillar of China’s regional architecture.

By Zineb Riboua, published on Substack

Why Operation Epic Fury Is the Opening Act of the Indo-Pacific Century.

In Brief by Probe International

In a gripping analysis, Zineb Riboua, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Middle East Peace and Security, explores the real story behind Iran—one that isn’t focused solely on its nuclear ambitions or its role as a regional troublemaker. Riboua argues the core issue is China’s strategic investment in the Islamic Republic. Beijing has poured billions into building Iran as a key asset, she asserts, and now, with Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. is poised to strike at the heart of this alliance, potentially dismantling a crucial pillar of China’s influence in the Middle East.

Israel’s devastating Operation Rising Lion, which crippled Iran’s nuclear capabilities and sparked nationwide protests, revealed the Islamic Republic was at its weakest point in decades. China stepped in to bolster Iran, reportedly finalizing deals for advanced weaponry and missile components that could threaten U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf, continues Riboua.

At the root of this relationship is oil. China buys a staggering 90% of Iran’s crude exports, keeping the Iranian economy afloat while gaining significant leverage over the nation. This partnership, formalized in a 25-year strategic agreement, has led to deep economic integration, with China investing heavily in Iran’s infrastructure and energy sectors.

But this alignment is not just about oil; the technological ties are equally alarming. Riboua outlines how Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE have helped to build Iran’s surveillance and telecommunications infrastructure—an internet landscape reminiscent of China’s Great Firewall. Simultaneously creating a digital leash that tightens Beijing’s grip on Tehran, it also offers Iran’s leaders “the tools to survive its own population’s rejection,” which Riboua writes is for the same reason it buys the oil: “a dependent Iran is a useful Iran.”

As the stakes rise, the implications of this alliance extend far beyond the Middle East, especially in the Red Sea, where Iranian proxies like the Houthis have wreaked havoc on global shipping, causing a staggering $1 trillion in disruptions. While the U.S. scrambles to respond, deploying carrier strike groups and expending precious military resources, China sits back, allowing its ships to sail through, using the chaos to its advantage.

As Gulf states grow increasingly wary of U.S. reliability, they are turning to China for support, deepening economic ties and shifting the balance of power. This shift not only enhances China’s influence in the region but also complicates America’s ability to respond effectively in a potential Taiwan crisis, argues Riboua.

Her analysis frames Operation Epic Fury as not just a punitive measure against Iran, but a strategic move to dismantle a key pillar of China’s influence in the Middle East. Weakening Iran, she says, frees up U.S. resources for the Pacific theater, where the real confrontation with China looms: Taiwan.

If the U.S. can successfully undermine the Islamic Republic, it could disrupt China’s strategic positioning and reshape the dynamics of great-power competition. Riboua points to Trump as the only president who has understood that “the road to the Pacific runs directly through Tehran.”

Go to the author’s Substack here to read this analysis in full.

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