The implications of shifting alliances amid a turbulent U.S.-China relationship.

Journalist Tara Palmeri interviews China commentator Bill Bishop for Sinocism.

In Brief by Probe International

In a recent discussion on Sinocism Live, China expert Bill Bishop analyzed the implications of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s January 2026 visit to Beijing—the first by a British leader in eight years—amid a stream of European and other Western leaders engaging China, including recent trips by figures like French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Bishop described the optics as unfavorable for the U.K., portraying Starmer as somewhat supplicant-like with modest gains such as halved tariffs on whisky (from 10% to 5%), visa-free travel concessions for British citizens, and vague claims of billions in trade/investment deals, while critics in the British press and opposition lambasted it as kowtowing.

This shift follows years of strained U.K.-China ties over issues like Hong Kong, Jimmy Lai’s imprisonment, spy scandals, and embassy approvals, but occurs against a backdrop of perceived U.S. unreliability under the second Trump administration. In response, “middle powers” like the U.K. and Canada have moved to hedge by pursuing more stable commercial relations with China rather than fully aligning with a confrontational U.S. stance.

The conversation highlighted accelerating global realignments, with China opportunistically filling vacuums created by U.S. alliance strains. By exploiting fissures in U.S. alliances—particularly within NATO and Five Eyes partners—Beijing is able to portray itself as a force for global stability and predictability in contrast to perceived U.S. instability, though Bishop emphasized the engagements are pragmatic rather than full flips.

On the U.S. side, Trump labeled such moves “dangerous,” yet Bishop argued the substance of Starmer’s agreements posed little direct threat to U.S. interests, with ongoing cooperation (e.g., in critical minerals initiatives like a new U.S.-led effort to counter China’s dominance via stockpiles and allied blocs) likely continuing despite rhetorical threats. Canada’s recent decision to allow certain Chinese electric vehicles poses a greater risk, as the U.S. has stricter restrictions on such imports.

Although long-term U.S.-China competition persists structurally—focused on supply chains, technology, and Taiwan—Beijing appears increasingly confident in managing Trump-era dynamics through a mix of leverage (rare earths) and diplomatic outreach.

Watch the conversation in full at the publisher’s website here.