The lack of a treaty for international rivers in Asia heightens tensions among downstream countries, exacerbated by extensive dam construction along the Lancang.

By Wang Weiluo, originally published in the April 2016 issue of “Trends,” recirculated by NewCenturyNet.

There’s a long-held view in China that the construction of reservoirs on the Lancang River would inevitably lead to a second Sino-Vietnamese border war. However, as long as China continues to generously provide money and water, a water dispute on the Mekong River will not occur.

There is currently no treaty governing international rivers in Asia.

European countries are generally small, and it’s common for a river to flow through multiple countries. Europe has numerous international treaties governing water resource management, while many Asian rivers also flow through multiple countries, yet no such international treaty has been signed to manage water resource use. Some wars in Asia, such as the Indo-Pakistani conflict and the Arab-Israeli conflict, stemmed from disputes over water. Without an international treaty on how the Mekong River countries can jointly manage and utilize water resources, the rampant dam construction on the upper reaches of the Lancang River will only increase distrust among downstream countries and escalate tensions. Several years ago, when I visited the Mekong Delta, I found that its ecological environment was much better protected than that of the Yangtze River Delta. Furthermore, Vietnamese people hate China more than the United States because China has yet to provide a reason for starting the war. There’s a long-held view in China that the commencement of the Lancang River dam project made a second Sino-Vietnamese border war inevitable. However, some argue that the Mekong River dispute can be settled with money, and that it’s not a real problem.

Since Vietnam’s drought is unrelated to the construction of dams and reservoirs on the Lancang River, why is the Chinese government releasing excessive amounts of water? Reports indicate that Vietnam is experiencing a drought of a magnitude not seen in ninety years, severely damaging its ecosystem. In March of this year, Vietnam requested China to release water from the Jinghong Reservoir in Yunnan Province to help alleviate the drought in the Mekong River basin. One of the most frequently asked questions by Chinese netizens is: Is Vietnam’s drought caused by the dams and reservoirs built by China on the upstream Lancang River?

This issue was raised in 2010. At that time, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out that the average annual runoff of the Lancang River at its exit from China only accounts for 13.5% of the total runoff of the Mekong River flowing into the sea. Therefore, the construction of dams and reservoirs on the Lancang River by China would have little impact on the Mekong River. China also provided hydrological data to prove this. Following this reasoning, the drought in Vietnam in 2016 should also be unrelated to the construction of dams and reservoirs on the Lancang River. However, on March 15th, the Chinese government announced that the Jinghong Reservoir in Yunnan Province would release water into the lower Mekong River at a flow rate of 2,190 cubic meters per second.

Whether or not this decision to release water is intended to create a friendly atmosphere for the first Mekong-Lancang Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting to be held in Sanya, China, in a few days, it contradicts the views stated by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

China has strangled itself.

In fact, in 2010, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs only cited the figure of 13.5%, while concealing another statistic: during the dry season, the average runoff at the Lancang River’s exit point from China reaches as high as 45% to 50%. Controlling the Lancang River’s water means controlling nearly half of the water volume of the Mekong River countries during the most water-scarce season. A Chinese netizen pointed out several years ago that the damming of the Lancang River has strangled Vietnam.

The Chinese government stated that in 2016, the water inflow into the Lancang River basin was 20% lower than the average for the same period, with a natural inflow of only about 500 cubic meters per second, impacting local residents’ drinking water and agricultural production. However, the current release of water from China into the lower Mekong River is as high as 2,190 cubic meters per second. While this is beneficial for disaster relief in Vietnam, this flow rate will be very unfavorable for China in the future. Under natural conditions, the average outflow of the Lancang River during the dry season is 689 cubic meters per second (with a minimum natural flow of only 395 cubic meters per second). If China ensures that the construction of the dam does not alter the natural flow of the Lancang River, it will return it to its optimal state. Before the construction of the dams on the Lancang River, the Mekong River countries did not blame China for droughts or floods. Now, the promised discharge of 2,190 cubic meters per second is 3.18 times the 689 cubic meters per second, similar to the Lancang River’s average annual flow. From now on, China will bear a huge burden: if the outflow is too large during the flood season, it will increase flooding downstream; if the outflow is too small during the dry season, it will increase drought downstream. The 2016 water diversion experiment proved that the dams and reservoirs on the Lancang River have such a large control capacity that they can arbitrarily control the outflow. If any mistakes are made in the future, China will be sued in international court. This is not just strangling Vietnam, but China strangling itself.

Due to the frenzied construction of large reservoirs and super-high dams on the Lancang River, the future outflow of the Lancang River will inevitably be less than the natural flow rate, making it impossible to guarantee the flow rate of 2,190 cubic meters per second. The Lancang River is one of China’s thirteen planned hydropower bases, with more than twenty reservoirs and dams planned for construction on its main stream. The Xiaowan and Nuozhadu reservoirs and dams (with dam heights of 294.5 meters and 261.5 meters respectively), which have been started and put into operation in recent years, have a total storage capacity of 38.835 billion cubic meters, accounting for 56.6% of the Lancang River’s annual outflow. When more than twenty reservoirs and dams were completed on the Lancang River, the total capacity of the reservoirs exceeded the outflow, and the development level exceeded 100%. World-renowned water expert Klark pointed out in his book “Water” that the development level of a river should ideally not exceed 5%, and should not exceed 15%. Former Chinese Minister of Water Resources Qian Zhengying also recognized after his retirement that China’s water conservancy problem lay in the over-development of its rivers.

Intensive cascade development on the Lancang River inevitably leads to a reduction in natural flow. To enable the Xiaowan and Nuozhadu hydropower stations to generate electricity, the reservoirs must be filled to their maximum dead capacity, requiring a reduction of 17.6 billion cubic meters in outflow. To maximize the power generation capacity of the hydropower stations, the outflow must be reduced by 38.8 billion cubic meters. This year, the Lancang River’s water flow is 20% lower than the same period in normal years. This is not due to a decrease in the source water, but rather because the Guoduo hydropower station, which supplies electricity to the Yulong Copper Mine, began operation at the end of 2015, thus blocking the water flow.

China has many cautionary tales. For example, the construction of over 500 reservoirs on the Yongding River, which flows through Beijing, has reduced the river’s average annual natural flow by more than a billion cubic meters, a fundamental cause of Beijing’s water shortage. Last year, a news story sparked global interest in the problem of water loss due to reservoir evaporation. A 71-hectare reservoir in Los Angeles was covered with 96 million black plastic sheets to save 1.1 billion liters of water from evaporation, a saving of 1.5 tons per square meter of surface area. While the Lancang River reservoir experiences less evaporation than those in California, it still yields about 1 ton per square meter.

Southwest China has excess hydropower production capacity

By the end of 2015, China’s power production capacity was oversupplied by as much as 20%, equivalent to twelve Three Gorges Dams. Yunnan and Sichuan provinces had hydropower overcapacity equivalent to two Three Gorges Dams, and even Tibet experienced hydropower overcapacity. This problem already existed when the Xiaowan and Nuozhadu Dams were under construction. At that time, it was thought that hydropower could be transmitted eastward to Guangdong, but Guangdong indicated no demand, yet the National Development and Reform Commission and Yunnan Province insisted on proceeding. Later, they tried various methods to sell the electricity to Vietnam at low prices. Now, hydropower capacity is developing rapidly, but it’s unclear who will need this ever-increasing power, forcing power groups to abandon hydropower projects.

The amount of water transferred to Vietnam this time will reach 5 to 6 billion cubic meters. According to current regulations, during normal times, the amount of water released from reservoirs and the water level are determined by the hydropower station operators; during floods and droughts, the amount of water released from reservoirs and the water level are determined by the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, but the state must compensate the power group from disaster relief funds for “reduced power generation.” This emergency water transfer to Vietnam puts the money into the power group’s coffers, alleviating the problem of excess electricity. Many Chinese people have praised this, but they are unaware that all the costs are borne by Chinese taxpayers.

The first Mekong-Lancang Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting was held in Sanya, China, on March 23. China made a generous commitment to economic assistance: “China is willing to establish a RMB 10 billion preferential loan and a USD 10 billion credit line, including a USD 5 billion preferential export buyer’s credit and a USD 5 billion special loan for production capacity cooperation, to support infrastructure construction and production capacity cooperation projects in the Lancang-Mekong region,” and “to provide USD 300 million over the next five years to support small and medium-sized cooperation projects proposed by the six countries.”

　　“Anything that can be solved with money is not a problem”—as long as China continues to generously provide money and water, the water war on the Mekong River will not occur.”