Not fighting wars, argues defense analyst and China monitor Timothy R. Heath.

In Brief by Probe International

In a recent article for the national security publication Lawfare, defense analyst Timothy R. Heath challenges the notion that China’s military could defeat U.S. forces in regional combat.

A prevalent and growing concern in Washington defense and security circles, particularly in relation to increasing tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, Heath counters that despite impressive hardware and modernization, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) functions as a “political military”—optimized first and foremost to ensure the survival and control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through loyalty, indoctrination, and regime security rather than warfighting prowess.

He argues this leads to trade-offs: while the PLA can project power effectively within range of its land-based missiles (leveraging geography and sheer numbers in scenarios like a Taiwan conflict), the PLA would likely face severe challenges in sustained, high-intensity conventional warfare far from home against a more professionally trained and operationally flexible U.S. military. Analyses overstating China’s ability to decisively defeat or inflict catastrophic losses on U.S. forces often ignore this political orientation, notes Heath, along with the PLA’s historical prioritization of party control over combat readiness.

Part of that reason is the role the military plays in its support of a politically insecure regime, writes Heath, who lists internal threats to the CCP’s legitimacy caused by rising unemployment, a bleak economic outlook, widespread corruption, and inadequate social welfare, and the toll on public approval. Heath states the government has allocated substantial resources to internal repression—exceeding the defense budget since 2011—indicating fears of domestic unrest. Prioritizing social stability and regime security creates a dilemma for Beijing, he says: while leaders seek a loyal military to maintain power, they also desire a competent force to deter adversaries. However, concludes Heath:

“A military can excel at one function but not the other” or strike a “mediocre balance” at both simultaneously.

Go to the publisher’s website here to read this article in full.

Timoth R. Heath is a senior international defense researcher with the RAND Corporation.