If China can punish Japan — economically powerful, diplomatically influential and protected by a U.S. defense treaty — then no other country should imagine itself beyond Beijing’s reach. 

By Brahma Chellaney | The Japan Times

By trying to bludgeon a major democracy into accepting its “red lines,” above all on Taiwan, China is exposing the raw coercive logic now powering its foreign policy. Its willingness to target Japan — a historic great power and today the world’s third-largest economy — telegraphs how Beijing intends to deal with the rest of Asia: through intimidation, economic punishment and calibrated use of nationalist fury.

For the original article this summary is based on, see the publisher’s website here.

In Brief by Probe International

China’s aggressive foreign policy, particularly regarding Taiwan, and its focus on Japan—a significant global power—demonstrates Beijing’s willingness to impose economic punishment and leverage nationalist sentiments to maintain control over the region.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival. Her “defensive clarifications” have been recast as “dangerous provocations” by Beijing as part of a severe backlash. The latter’s intimidation campaign culminated in a crude threat from the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, who threatened to “chop off” Takaichi’s “filthy head” in a now-deleted social media post.

In a bid to unite political challengers and business lobbies against Takaichi through economic pain, Beijing’s tactics include imposing de facto bans on seafood imports, freezing group tours, stalling Japanese film releases, canceling trilateral summits, and even airlines—a move that has “gutted winter travel bookings”. The push to undermine Takaichi’s narrow conservative coalition and reshape Japan’s political landscape is part of China’s emboldened “wolf warrior” diplomacy, which seeks to frame its coercion as justified self-defense while stifling international support for Japan’s stance on Taiwan.

The overarching message from Beijing is clear: countries must remain silent on Taiwan and other issues related to Chinese expansionism or face severe consequences. If Japan successfully withstands this pressure, it could ultimately transform what was intended as a warning into a rallying cry for regional solidarity against China’s hostile rise, potentially fostering stronger alliances among nations like the U.S., Australia, India, as well as itself.

Brahma Chellaney, the author of nine books, including “Water: Asia’s New Battleground,” is a longtime contributor to The Japan Times.

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