Elite purges and unscripted policy reversals hint at instability behind the Party’s veiled decision-making.

By Probe International

Think pieces exploring the possibility that China’s ‘leader for life’ is losing his ironclad grip on power continue to grow in number.

Scrutiny has intensified on the subject in recent weeks spurred by Xi Jinping’s absence from public view between May 21 and June 5 earlier this year, and his passing on the July 6-7 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, the first time he has not attended since assuming the presidency in 2013. A more significant development in the opaque echelons of Beijing’s power elite has been the proposal of regulations to standardize the operations of key Communist Party policy-coordinating bodies by China’s Politburo. This signals potential moves by President Xi to institutionalize decision-making protocols while ceding portions of his authority—a notable departure from his decade-long pattern of centralizing power.

This adjustment has been interpreted as a recalibration in the face of mounting economic and geopolitical challenges, and suggests that Xi may be stepping back from day-to-day management while retaining overall control amid speculation he is preparing to retire, if that is indeed the case. Much remains unknown.

Offering a checklist of signs that Xi’s strongman era is waning, the U.K.’s Telegraph provides a survey of the struggles testing his leadership. These include China’s economic stagnation (real growth ~3%, youth unemployment at 15%), compounded by the near-collapse of the country’s housing market, and a failure to pivot from export-driven growth to domestic consumption. Xi’s aggressive posturing (South China Sea claims, Taiwan threats) has alienated neighbors and solidified U.S. alliances. Autocratic purges—under cover of a corruption crackdown that serves the dual purpose of eliminating political rivals—has stoked elite resentment. [See: The Fading Power of Xi Jinping].

The Telegraph notes Xi’s refusal to name a successor and his 2018 abolition of term limits as fuelling speculation of a potential leadership challenge. If Xi fails to revive the economy, the next Party Congress in 2027 may force him to relinquish at least one of his three leadership roles (president, party chief, military chair), with the People’s Liberation Army’s loyalty and elite determining whether his “bones fly out from beneath the rug.” [A reference to Winston Churchill comparing Kremlin power struggles to “a bulldog fight under a rug,” with the winner made obvious by the reveal of osseous matter].

The overall concensus is that while the cracks in Xi’s rulership are showing, the “vital warning lights…are not flashing”. Indicators that would signal danger cited by the Telegraph’s round-up of experts include: “central leaders saying slightly discordant things,” “provincial leaders who are sort of acting in a more autonomous way,” “military leaders who are [making] overt statements which are different from the government,” as well as a marked reduction in Xi’s appearances in “the main Chinese newspapers” (aka propaganda channels). This is not currently the case.

Repeated anti-corruption purges, however, reflect Xi’s vulnerability. Speaking to the Telegraph, Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant-colonel in the PLA who defected to the U.S. in 2016, describes the targeting of officials as “selective” and not “truly” aimed at the corrupt. “It’s all about purging his rivals, which has upset many,” he says. Claiming the PLA wants Xi to step down, he adds, “Once a national leader loses power in the military, they are vulnerable and Xi is now vulnerable.”

The full version of this opinion piece is available at the publisher’s website here.