The Israel-Iran conflict underscores the “Axis of Upheaval” as a loose coalition of convenience rather than a unified bloc that might evolve into a cohesive strategic alliance.

In Brief by Probe International

A recent discussion panel hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) looked at the evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK), referred to as the “Axis of Upheaval” through the lens of the recent Israel-Iran conflict.

Key takeaways from the discussion explored the ways in which CRINK states collaborate—particularly in terms of arms supply and sanctions evasion—but remain constrained due to distrust and divergent interests that underscore the fragility of these alliances. Rather than a shared long-term vision, CRINK partnerships are characterized as transactional and driven by anti-Western grievances.

CSIS Middle East Program Director, Mona Yakubian, noted the Russia-Iran alliance intensified following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Isolated by Western sanctions, Moscow increasingly relied on Tehran for military support, including Shahed-136 drones and expertise in evading sanctions. In January 2025, the two nations formalized their collaboration with a strategic partnership agreement, though it conspicuously omitted a mutual defense commitment. While economic ties—such as Russian exports of agricultural and industrial goods—have expanded, Snegovaya underscored enduring historical tensions and mutual distrust, fueled by espionage and conflicting regional interests. She characterized the relationship as a fragile “marriage of convenience,” vulnerable to disruption if Western nations adopt more assertive strategies to counter their alignment.

In his analysis of the China-Iran relationship, CSIS Deputy Director and Fellow of the China Power Project, Brian Hart, underscored its economic and energy-centered dynamic. He estimates China’s reliance on Iran for its annual oil imports at around 13-14%, while Iran’s oil exports to China make up almost 90% of its oil sales, making Beijing Tehran’s largest trade partner and the primary beneficiary of its sanctioned crude via intermediaries (like Malaysia and Singapore).

Beyond energy, China supplies dual-use materials such as ammonium perchlorate—critical for ballistic missile production—prompting U.S. sanctions against participating Chinese entities. Hart drew parallels with Iran’s ties to Russia, noting that while cooperation exists, strategic distrust persists, rooted in historical tensions and unilateral actions (e.g., Iran reverse-engineering Chinese defense tech). He emphasized China’s strategic caution, avoiding overt military aid while enabling Iran’s regional influence through indirect channels, such as drone components and missile fuel. This covert support, Hart argued, reflects Beijing’s broader pattern of leveraging economic interdependence to advance geopolitical objectives without overtly destabilizing regional balances.

View the discussion in full below.