A CCP-affiliated study touts China’s proposed transboundary Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project as climate-resilient, but critics decry claims as biased propaganda that ignores grave issues and violations.

By Probe International

The once venerable Nature magazine appears to have become a shill for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). 

Leveraging the magazine’s academic prestige, a recent study published by the journal propagates the CCP’s misleading narrative about the benefits of China’s planned transboundary Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project in occupied Tibet.

The study “Hydropower System in the Yarlung-Tsangpo Grand Canyon Can Mitigate Flood Disasters Caused by Climate Change,” on the surface, is impressively reassuring. It asserts the proposed hydropower project—touted as the world’s largest diversion-type system—will mitigate the impacts of climate change by balancing energy generation, flood control, and ecological preservation. Its bias, however, is located at the source.

The study issues from the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), a national research institution under the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources, which is also the recipient of substantial funding from the Chinese government. Among its claims, the study argues the project would stabilize runoff, enhance dry-season irrigation/navigation, and reduce flood risks. The study’s authors (most of whom are affiliated with the IWHR) emphasize the need for transboundary cooperation for adaptive reservoir operations, framing the project as a model for reconciling energy security (for China) with flood resilience for downstream nations such as India and Bangladesh (both vocal critics of the dam’s potential to be weaponized by the CCP to exert control over neighboring regions).

Engineered as a response to criticism of the proposed megadam, the study doesn’t bear weight against two powerful reports on the threat the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project poses to the world’s deepest and longest canyon—a rare and invaluable heritage site, and home to more than half of the world’s known species. Authored by the renowned German-based hydrology expert Wang Weiluo, Wang’s research contends the potential sacrifice of the canyon to the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project is not even needed, and epitomizes Beijing’s prioritization of geopolitical leverage and global hydropower dominance over ecological and legal obligations, further deepening regional distrust and environmental degradation. [Refer to Wang’s blockbuster analysis published earlier this year: A Case of “Extreme Nationalism” and Stop the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project].

At our request, Wang has provided an in-depth takedown of Nature magazine’s publication of CCP fiction, intended to misguide the scientific community. Wang’s response appears below in full.

By Wang Weiluo: A response to “Hydropower System in the Yarlung-Tsangpo Grand Canyon Can Mitigate Flood Disasters Caused by Climate Change,” published by Nature magazine on April 26, 2025.

First, this article mentions the goals of the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project, which, in addition to power generation, include flood control (reducing the risk of downstream flooding), dry-season irrigation, navigation, and so-called positive impacts on the ecological environment. Among these, flood control, irrigation during the dry season, and navigation were not mentioned in previous Xinhua News Agency reports or in responses from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. In particular, the article argues that “transboundary cooperation is strengthened through adaptive reservoir management, ensuring energy security for China and flood protection for downstream nations. This integrated approach highlights the potential for harmonizing sustainable hydropower expansion with ecological and geopolitical resilience in international river basins,” suggesting that this represents a so-called “win-win”—securing China’s energy needs while safeguarding flood control for downstream countries, namely India and Bangladesh.

Because the generating units of the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project are planned for construction on the Chinese side, not far from the Line of Actual Control with India, the claim that the dam project can mitigate downstream flood risks clearly does not refer to areas under Chinese control—where there are no towns or villages—but rather to reducing flood risks in the areas downstream under Indian control.

However, India does not share the same view. Instead, it sees this as a form of “water warfare,” a sentiment echoed by many media commentators around the world. For instance, journalist Choi Yu-sik, the director of the Northeast Asia Research Institute at Chosun Ilbo, has stated that the current tensions between China and India over the construction of what may become the world’s largest hydropower dam are signs of an emerging “water war.” One can also see the destabilizing role that dams on transboundary rivers can play by looking at the recent military tensions between India and Pakistan—dams can be used both to choke off water flow and to unleash sudden floods without warning, creating man-made disasters.

Therefore, until China and India reach a mutual agreement on the peaceful use of Yarlung Tsangpo River resources, the Chinese Communist Party’s unilateral announcement to proceed with hydropower development on the river’s lower reaches amounts to outright bullying.

Second, the article reveals an important piece of information: the projected average annual power generation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is 223.1 billion kilowatt-hours (223.1 × 10⁸ kWh). This figure is only 2.5 times that of the Three Gorges Dam’s annual output of 88.2 billion kilowatt-hours, rather than the “more than three times” or even “300 billion kilowatt-hours annually” as claimed by Chinese state media.

If the average annual generation is indeed 223.1 billion kilowatt-hours, the Yarlung Tsangpo project would not surpass Africa’s Grand Inga Dam in terms of power output, and thus would fall short of securing China’s top position in the global hydropower industry.

If the average annual power generation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is 223.1 billion kilowatt-hours—and using China’s current hydropower grid purchase price of 0.26 yuan per kilowatt-hour—the average annual electricity revenue would be only about 58.006 billion yuan. Meanwhile, Chinese state media have promoted the project’s construction cost as 1 trillion yuan, meaning the annual revenue from electricity sales would account for merely 5.8% of the total investment. After deducting annual operation, management, and maintenance costs, the net profit could be close to zero or even negative.

Therefore, in addition to power generation, it becomes necessary to include other objectives—such as flood control, dry-season irrigation, and navigation—to help justify the project’s economic viability. This mirrors the feasibility argument once used for the Three Gorges Dam: when you question flood control benefits, they show you the power generation benefits; when you question power generation, they switch to talking about navigation; and when you challenge navigation benefits, they circle back to flood control. This is the core significance of the article for the Chinese leadership: by incorporating goals like flood control, irrigation, and navigation, they can construct a more favorable case for the economic feasibility of the project.

Third, the geological disaster risks posed by the downstream hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River must be taken seriously. Geological engineer Fan Xiao has argued in his writings that, from the perspective of geological risks, hydropower development in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon is unfeasible. However, the article titled “Hydropower System in the Yarlung-Tsangpo Grand Canyon Can Mitigate Flood Disasters Caused by Climate Change,” claims that the project will reduce the risk of rockfalls and landslides in the region. Yet, Chinese scientists have introduced a new concept based on experience from China’s hydropower development: reservoir-induced landslides.

Fourth, the downstream hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River is an illegal project, as it violates both international law and China’s own domestic laws.

Violation of International Law

The project violates several key international agreements, including:

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, adopted by the UN General Assembly on May 21, 1997;

The Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage, adopted by the UNESCO General Conference on November 16, 1972;

The Declaration concerning the Intentional Destruction of Cultural Heritage, issued by UNESCO in 2003;

The Convention on Biological Diversity, signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development on June 5, 1992.

Violation of Domestic Law

The downstream hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River also violates China’s domestic laws, including:

The Regulations on Nature Reserves, issued by the State Council in 1994;

The Ecological Protection Law of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, adopted by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on April 26, 2023.

The Ecological Protection Law of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau emphasizes the critical importance of biodiversity in the region and sets clear mandates for its protection. This hydropower project, by threatening the region’s ecological integrity and biodiversity, stands in direct contradiction to these legal requirements.

Chinese scientists believe that the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon is a complete natural museum—a center of species origin and diversification, a trigger zone for climate and environmental evolution, and a natural gene bank of biodiversity. It harbors over half of the world’s known species, making it one of the most promising regions in China for the development and sustainable use of biological resources, as well as an ideal habitat for the rescue and breeding of critically endangered species.

The convergence of mountain ranges, expansive glaciers, deeply incised canyons, humid air currents, active geomorphology, and rich biodiversity creates a natural complex unmatched anywhere else on Earth. This area is regarded as a sanctuary of natural science.

Image created by Generative AI