China’s ongoing interest in securing delivery routes is part of a long-term investment that serves a variety of end goals, including its dependence on fossil fuels.

By Probe International

An extensive new rail corridor that connects China to Europe through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan has now been ceremoniously initiated.

In the face of a potential escalation between Beijing and Washington through economic ties, the project is expected to provide China with an alternative route for moving goods to Europe that bypasses Russia, Belarus, and Poland (countries that are part of the so-called “Iron Silk Road” railway corridor that connects Asia and Europe, and a branch of the Belt and Road Initiative).

Moscow faces a significant challenge as Beijing insists the new railway line through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan use the international standard track width of 1,435 millimeters, which is incompatible with Russia’s 1,520-millimeter gauge. China proposes either using the international standard or double-tracking with the narrower gauge inside the Russian line to reduce costs. A development Moscow views as a threat to its dominance in Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia.

A backgrounder from 2021 anticipated the alternative trade route would “accelerate China’s gradual displacement of Russia as the dominant power in post-Soviet Central Asia,” and could potentially transform “the geopolitical situation in the region,” to Russia’s disadvantage.

Compounding the country’s rail woes, reports out of Russia reveal China’s rail freight operators have been abandoning services to their neighbor as they look to prioritize their European customers.

According to a logistics expert in contact with Russia’s RZD-Partner (a magazine that covers the region’s transport sector), six to seven out of ten trains from China are currently heading to Europe, with only three to four bound for Russia. This has led to delays and rescheduling of trains to Russia, with some waiting for up to three weeks. The shift in train routes follows indications that volumes previously allocated to Russia, are being diverted to new routes in Europe as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine. This change marks a third significant blow to Russia’s rail services this year. [See also: Russia’s Wartime Economic Woes Slow Railway Trade With China].

Meanwhile, China’s ongoing interest in securing delivery routes is part of a long-term investment that serves a variety of end goals. Of these, the country’s $1-trillion Belt and Road Initiative stands as the “jewel in the crown.” In her extensive analysis of China’s energy ambitions, executive director of Probe International, Patricia Adams, contextualizes the BRI as a means of funnelling fossil fuels and other resources to China that also extends Beijing’s “military reach and geopolitical clout.”

Crucial to the Communist regime’s legitimacy is fossil fuels which, she says, despite Beijing’s image as a world leader in green energy, drives the country’s economy and President Xi Jinping’s dream of world domination by 2049, the centennial of the Party’s founding.

China’s long-term investments to secure oil suppliers and delivery routes reflects its reliance on fossil fuels for the future. This includes establishing a permanent PLA naval base in Djibouti, its first overseas naval base, to protect strategic sea lanes. The PLA Navy also operates in various oceans and seas, utilizing long-term port deals across the globe.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is another key component of China’s strategy. A significant project within the BRI is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which involves building highways, rail lines, and pipelines from the port of Gwadar in the Indian Ocean to Xinjiang. This corridor will allow for the overland transport of oil, natural gas, and other raw materials to China, significantly reducing the distance and potential risks associated with maritime routes. [See: China’s Energy Dream].