Why construct the world’s biggest dam in a seismically vulnerable region that doesn’t even require the energy it will generate?

By Tibetan Review

Summary of the original report which can be viewed here at the publisher’s website

The devastating earthquake in Dingri County, Tibet, on January 7, which killed 126 people and injured 188, has prompted calls for China, India, Nepal, and Bhutan to assess the geological impact of rampant dam building in the Himalayas. This comes as China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, raising concerns about its potential as a hydrological weapon and its environmental and geopolitical risks.

Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney and veteran BBC journalist Subir Bhaumik have highlighted the dangers of building such a massive dam in a seismically active area. The dam’s location near the Indian border and its proximity to a major fault line make it a potential “ticking water bomb” for downstream communities in India and Bangladesh. The project could alter river flows, trap nutrient-rich silt, and threaten fragile ecosystems, which are crucial for Asia’s monsoons.

India has expressed significant concerns over the dam’s implications for national security and ecology, fearing water scarcity and severe flash floods. The recent earthquake has further raised the possibility of a dam collapse or significant damage, which could lead to catastrophic consequences downstream.

China claims the dam will not cause ecological harm, but geologists argue that the high frequency of seismic activity in the region suggests otherwise. The dam’s construction also raises concerns about China’s control over cross-border river flows and its potential to leverage water resources as a geopolitical tool. This situation is likely to exacerbate mistrust and strategic rivalry between China and India.

China’s Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend mega-dam not feasible due to risks

A 2022 report by renowned Chinese geologist and environmentalist, Fan Xiao, which we translated and circulated last year, remains prescient in its breakdown of what’s at stake for the development of a transboundary super dam for occupied Tibet.

Fan notes the dam is not needed “to reduce emissions” and cannot be justified as a climate change project.

“In terms of Tibet’s own energy needs, there is no requirement” for a super dam in this area, he says. Due to lack of demand, hydropower stations in China’s Sichuan and Yunnan provinces even have to release excess water. But the allure of the “increased GDP, investment, and tax revenue” that such projects generate, says Fan, is a great temptation for governments and vested interest groups.

Not only is the dam not needed, argues Fan, it may not function if its construction and operation in such a seismically sensitive region creates knock-on geological disasters. Strong earthquakes, for example, might not only damage the project but trigger “other uncontrollable events,” writes Fan, “such as riverbank collapses, landslides, and mudslides, which can pose a significant threat to the project structure and may lead to severe secondary disasters.” Ultimately, the potential harms and costs of developing a mega-engineering project (three times bigger than Three Gorges in generation capacity) in such a high-risk location is unprecedented in scale.

Read Fan Xiao’s breakdown in full here.

China’s Energy Dream

A 2021 report by Probe International’s Patricia Adams on President Xi Jinping’s goal to make China the world’s supreme power by the year 2049, warns that energy security at all costs is essential to this aim.

As part of its territorial expansionism to seize on resources to that end, water has become the new weapon for China in its low-intensity warfare with neighbors India, and particularly Bangladesh.

In the Himalayas, China is aggressively constructing new villages and military facilities in disputed areas, with the goal of consolidating control over strategically important regions claimed by India, Bhutan, and Nepal, says Adams.

China, she argues, leverages its control over the Himalayan plateau to manipulate cross-border river flows, impacting downstream countries such as India and Bangladesh. Flash water releases and unannounced holdbacks, she says, illustrate China’s capability to weaponize fresh water supplies. With that game plan in mind, the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River presents China with a formidable, potentially catastrophic lever in its bid to gain a throttlehold on the headwaters of Asia’s major river systems.

Read Patricia Adams’ report in full here.