The great exodus of people and capital as China’s economic decline and squeezed politics push many to vote with their feet.

By Lynette Ong | Nikkei Asia

When Xi Jinping assumed the Communist Party leadership 11 years ago, he sold to his people the “China Dream” — a vision that portrayed the country as soon-to-be the world’s greatest power, reclaiming its rightful place in history. Much has since changed — notably the COVID pandemic and rising tensions with the U.S. On-the-ground evidence now suggests an increasing number of Chinese people no longer buy into his vision. The social discourse known as runxue — which literally means “to run away” — is in vogue. Since the end of zero-COVID in late 2022, the number of Chinese, across different social strata, leaving the country has climbed rapidly. So has the amount of private capital exiting through legal and illegal means.

Summary

The number of Chinese citizens seeking political asylum overseas increased to 120,000 in 2021, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; an increase of more than twelvefold under Xi Jinping compared to his predecessor, Hu Jintao. U.S. border patrol data also shows a substantial increase in illegal entries by Chinese citizens. Meanwhile, the amount of private capital leaving China has surged, with estimates suggesting $738 billion exited the country in the third quarter of 2022.

The exodus of people and capital from China can be attributed to its economic decline and the closing of political space under Xi Jinping’s regime, argues Lynette Ong, an expert on power and authoritarianism in China at the University of Toronto. The social contract, which previously traded political acquiescence for economic prosperity, is now being questioned as the economic pie shrinks. The abolition of the presidential term limit in 2018 and the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic have further eroded trust in the Chinese Communist Party, she writes. As a result, those who can afford to leave are doing so, while others are opting to “lie flat” in protest against the system.

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