Despite its challenges, the U.S. remains the richest and most powerful nation on Earth. Ferguson’s provocative thesis ultimately detracts from the serious issues he raises.

By Shay Khatiri | Published by Providence Magazine

Summary

In his debut column for The Free Press, Niall Ferguson highlights several challenges facing the United States, including aging leadership, an expanding state, a weakened military, an out-of-touch elite, and mounting debt. However, his provocative thesis—“Are we the baddies?”—undermines his objective by framing the U.S. in a negative light, particularly in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry.

Ferguson suggests that in the new Cold War, the U.S. might be the Soviets, rather than the Chinese. The comparison is flawed, argues Shay Khatiri, VP of Development and Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute, as it overlooks the significant differences in economic, military, and political capabilities between the U.S. and China.

Economically, China has been accused of exaggerating its GDP by up to 30%. Its actual nominal GDP could be as low as $12 trillion, compared to the U.S.’s $27 trillion GDP in 2023. The U.S. also has a larger household wealth ($140 trillion) compared to China’s $84 trillion, indicating a stronger economic base for the U.S.

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