Momentum behind net zero pledges could be fading as Beijing prioritizes economic growth and energy security.

By Edward White | Published by the Financial Times

The message from Beijing to local government officials across China is that they need to oversee an “orderly transition”. This is phrased in the Chinese context as, “before you find your new rice bowl, don’t break your old rice bowl”. “If investments made into green energy are going to result in higher risk of blackouts, then they’ll build more coal plants.”

Summary

China plays a critical role in global efforts to combat climate change, given its status as the world’s largest emitter of carbon emissions. President Xi Jinping’s administration has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Progress towards these goals, however, appears to have slowed. Despite China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, there has also been a significant increase in the construction of new coal-fired power stations, with China adding more coal capacity than any other country.

Experts worry that the prioritization of economic growth and energy security may be overshadowing climate goals. Although China is investing heavily in non-thermal power generation, coal is still being touted as the backbone of the energy system. The challenge for policymakers is to balance the transition to renewables with the risk of power shortages and blackouts.

The cost of transitioning to a green economy is estimated to be as high as $17 trillion, according to the World Bank. However, there is optimism that the cost of renewable energy technologies is decreasing, which could lead to a decline in coal power generation before 2030. Nevertheless, vested interests in fossil fuels within state-owned enterprises may hinder the transition to clean energy.

China is not abandoning its climate targets, but there is a risk that the peak in emissions could be higher and later than anticipated, complicating the path to net zero by 2060.

For the original, full-text version of this report, see the publisher’s website here.

According to a report released by Probe International in 2021, “China’s Energy Dream,” the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is leveraging the goal of net zero to weaken the West.

Energy security is vital to the longevity of the Chinese Communist Party and that means fossil fuels. The pursuit of CO₂ reductions does not serve the goal of preserving Communist rule, in reality. But it does serve the CCP’s interests as a weapon for weakening other countries.

For more on the reality of the CCP’s energy policy, see:

The Truth about China (pdf)

The Red and the Green: China’s Useful Idiots (pdf)

The Road from Paris: China’s Climate U-Turn (pdf)

Eco-Fundamentalism as Grist for China’s Mills (pdf)

The Worm in the Rose