Editorial
Toronto Star, Canada
May 23, 2003

Is an American occupier better than an Iraqi despot, or a United Nations trustee? The people of Iraq will soon find out.

If U.S. President George Bush moves swiftly to end the chaos in Baghdad and other cities, to name a credible interim administration dominated by leaders from the Shia majority and to give Iraqis the chance to elect a truly representative government, his “war of liberation” will be judged a success.

But he hasn’t yet.

Bush did manage yesterday to win U.N. Security Council approval for his occupation, which confers much-needed legitimacy on it. In a 14/0 vote with Syria absent, the U.N. also lifted the economic sanctions that have impoverished and embittered Iraqis for 13 years.

The Americans and British now have a legal mandate to run the country of 23 million as they see fit, indefinitely, with only secondary input from the U.N. and its agencies. Companies can more safely invest. And they can sell Iraq’s oil without hindrance, and begin to rebuild.

The U.N. also has managed to patch up its ugly rift over Bush’s unilateral drive to topple Saddam. The cost is high: The U.N. has had to sanction the outcome of a morally dubious war. But at least the global community speaks with one voice again.

And there’s some hope for ordinary Iraqis. The oil industry should generate $20 billion next year, compared to $12 billion before. That will ease the suffering, though it’s nowhere near enough to finance a $20 billion a year rebuilding effort, plus the servicing of a $400 billion debt. Aid and debt relief will be needed.

Inevitably, Iraqis will soon discover that they’re in for a painful transition, rather than a painless return to pre-Gulf War prosperity. That will make the “liberators” less popular.

They’ll be even less popular if Bush foists an unrepresentative new regime on the country, stuffed with expatriates beholden to foreign interests. Or if the U.S. is seen to be dictating Iraqi policy, buying up the Iraqi oil sector, or hogging lucrative reconstruction contracts.

A sounder approach would have been to give the U.N. the leading role in the post-Saddam era, shaping an orderly transition to democratic self-rule. It has a lot of experience nation-building.

But Bush was determined to call the shots. Now he will carry the can for his success, or failure.