World Rivers Review
December 15, 1999

Senior officials, international aid agencies, and foreign engineering firms continue to push China toward large, expensive and inflexible hydropower projects such as the recently completed Ertan Hydroelectric Project in Sichuan.

Everyone agrees that China needs clean energy options. In the past two decades, pollution from coal fired plants has blackened China’s skies, caused health and environmental crises and contributed to global warming. Sulfur dioxide and soot from coal creates acid rain that falls on 30 percent of the country and has affected India, Japan and Southeast Asia. Of the ten most polluted cities in the world, seven are in China.

In response to this crisis, the government has been encouraging development and implementation of clean-air technologies and renewable energy sources. China’s coal consumption in the last year decreased significantly as a direct result of market reforms, closing inefficient state-owned enterprises, and the implementation of energy efficiency programs. Many in the international community recognize this as an important opportunity to bolster China in its efforts to develop renewable energy sources. The US Department of Energy last month announced support for a US$25 million program to develop wind and solar projects.

However, senior officials, international aid agencies and foreign engineering firms continue to push China toward large, expensive and inflexible hydropower projects. The recently completed Ertan Hydroelectric Project in Sichuan is the perfect example of how this approach can create more problems than it solves. Ertan was made possible by the World Bank’s largest-ever financing package for a single project. World Bank staff described the objectives of the project to be “alleviation of acute power shortages in a least-cost manner.” The outcome, however, has proven to be quite different than planners had hoped (please see Probe International’s press release on Ertan). In the midst of an electricity glut, Ertan Dam doesn’t have buyers for about half of its electricity and is expected to lose up to $120 million this year. Consumers are not likely to buy Ertan’s electricity as long as there are cheaper alternatives available.

Dams in China have been a disastrous experiment from all angles. Its nearly 19,000 large dams have displaced well over 10 million people, irreparably damaged aquatic ecosystems, and caused serious safety problems. A 1975 series of dam collapses in Henan province caused the deaths of over 230,000 people. Today, corruption and poor planning continue to result in dam-related safety hazards. Earlier this year, many bridges and related infrastructure for the huge Three Gorges Dam was labeled “tofu scum” by the nation’s premier, and ordered ripped out and rebuilt.

Technically, dams on China’s rivers face costly challenges as well. China’s reservoirs have perhaps the world’s highest average sedimentation rate (11.5 times faster than the average US sedimentation rate, and twice the world average). This rapid loss in reservoir capacity results in shorter lifespans for its dams, greatly reduced economic viability, and huge changes to floodplains downstream. In one case, the Yangouxia Dam on China’s Yellow River lost almost one-third of its storage capacity before it was even commissioned in the 1950s.

Economically, China’s hydropower cannot compete with other options, such as combined-cycle power plants, cogeneration plants or demand-management conservation measures (please see Probe International’s Three Gorges report). Large dams also have huge social and environmental costs compared to renewables such as solar and wind. China’s geography and climate are well suited to both solar and wind power. Strong wind sources have been identified along its coasts, offshore islands and northern regions which are near major population centers. Wind speeds are suitable for both rural village electrification and for large scale grid-connected electrical generation.

All of these options – combined-cycle power plants, cogeneration, demand-management and efficiency measures, and renewables – are more flexible and, ultimately, more economical than expensive and slow-to-complete hydroelectric dam projects.

Rather than learning from the problems at Ertan, members of the “hydro-mafia” – in this case, the World Bank, powerful members of China’s old political guard, and foreign engineering and construction firms – are advocating for more hydro development in the Yangzi watershed. Several projects are planned that will be larger and more expensive than Ertan.

The impacts of China’s large dams will extend beyond the millions displaced from their homes and land, and the irreparable damage to rivers and watersheds. The economy and its electricity sector will suffer a blow as well. While technological advances from around the world offer the promise of cheaper, cleaner, and more reliable power, China’s citizens are being encouraged to buy expensive and unreliable power from dinosaur projects such as Ertan and its ilk. It is time for an energy revolution for China, and a new ethic for those pushing such projects on the Chinese people.